Script: Risk: Calculate Your Chances

Introduction (5 minutes)

(Display Slide 1: Risk: Calculate Your Chances)

"Good morning/afternoon, everyone! Today, we're diving into a topic that affects every single one of us, every single day: risk. How many of you have heard the word 'risk' before? [Pause for student responses]. I'm sure you have! But what does it really mean? And more importantly, how do we make smart choices when we're faced with risks? That's what we'll be exploring in our lesson, 'Risk: Calculate Your Chances'."

"To get us thinking, let's start with a quick Warm Up: Risk Scenarios. I have a few scenarios for you to consider. Quickly jot down or discuss with a partner: What are the risks in these situations? What might happen?"

(Facilitate Warm Up: Risk Scenarios for 5 minutes, then transition back to the main lesson.)

What is Risk? (10 minutes)

(Display Slide 2: What is Risk?)

"Excellent discussion, everyone! You've already started to identify some key elements of risk. At its core, risk is the possibility of something bad or unexpected happening. It's about uncertainty and potential consequences. Think about it: every time you cross the street, you're taking a risk. Every time you try a new sport, there's a risk. Even investing money involves risk."

"It's important to understand that 'risk' isn't always about something terrible. Sometimes taking a risk can lead to great rewards! But it's always about potential outcomes, and some of those outcomes might not be what we hoped for."

(Display Slide 3: Types of Risks)

"Risks aren't all the same. They come in different forms. Let's look at a few common types:

• Physical risks: These involve your body getting hurt or sick. Can anyone give an example of a physical risk?
  [Guide students to examples like getting a sports injury, falling, getting sick from germs, etc.]
• Emotional risks: These can affect your feelings or mental well-being. What might be an emotional risk?
  [Guide students to examples like trying out for a play and not getting a part, telling someone how you feel, feeling embarrassed, etc.]
• Financial risks: These involve money. Any ideas for financial risks?
  [Guide students to examples like losing money, spending too much, investing in something that fails, etc.]
• Social risks: These relate to your relationships with others or your reputation. What comes to mind here?
  [Guide students to examples like speaking in public, being judged by peers, sharing personal information online, etc.]
• Environmental risks: These involve dangers from our surroundings. Can you think of any?
  [Guide students to examples like natural disasters, pollution, getting lost in the wilderness, etc.]

"As you can see, risks are all around us, in many different aspects of our lives."

(Display Slide 4: Why Evaluate Risk?)

"So, why bother evaluating all these risks? Why not just live life without thinking about them? [Pause for student thoughts]. That's right! Evaluating risk is a superpower! It helps us make informed decisions, protect ourselves and others, minimize potential harm, and even maximize positive outcomes. It's about being prepared and smart, not living in fear."

Reading: Understanding Risk (10 minutes)

"Now, to deepen our understanding, I'm going to hand out a Reading: Understanding Risk. Please read it silently or in pairs. As you read, think about how the examples connect to what we've just discussed."

(Distribute Reading: Understanding Risk and allow 7 minutes for reading.)

"Alright, let's take a few minutes to discuss what you've read. Using the Discussion Prompts: Weighing the Odds, what was one key idea or example that stood out to you from the reading?"

(Facilitate a brief class discussion using Discussion Prompts: Weighing the Odds for 3 minutes.)

Activity: Risk Detective (15 minutes)

(Display Slide 5: Weighing Outcomes and Slide 6: Risk Assessment Steps)

"Fantastic! Now it's time to put on your detective hats! We're going to practice weighing outcomes and assessing risks using a structured approach. Remember, when you face a decision, you want to think about two main things: Likelihood – how likely is something to happen? And Impact – how big would the consequences be?"

"We'll use these steps: Identify the Hazard, Who/What is at Risk, Evaluate the Risk, Control Measures, and Review."

"You'll work in small groups for our Activity: Risk Detective. I'll present different scenarios, and your group will work together to:

• Identify potential risks.
• Discuss possible consequences (both good and bad).
• Brainstorm ways to reduce or manage those risks.

"I'll be circulating to help you with your investigations. Let's get started!"

(Divide students into groups and distribute Activity: Risk Detective scenarios. Circulate and provide guidance. Allow 15 minutes for the activity.)

Game: Risk or Reward? (5 minutes)

(Display Slide 7: Activity: Risk Detective and Slide 8: Game: Risk or Reward?)

"Great detective work, everyone! Now, for a quick, fun way to test your instincts: our Game: Risk or Reward?! I'm going to describe a scenario. Your job is to decide if the potential reward outweighs the risk. Be ready to quickly explain your thinking!"

(Facilitate Game: Risk or Reward? for 5 minutes. Keep it fast-paced and engaging.)

Worksheet: My Risk Assessment (10 minutes)

(Display Slide 9: Worksheet: My Risk Assessment)

"You've done an amazing job today identifying and evaluating risks! Now, let's bring it closer to home. I'm distributing the Worksheet: My Risk Assessment. On this worksheet, I'd like you to choose a personal experience or a hypothetical situation that you find interesting.

"Your task is to apply the risk assessment steps we just discussed to that scenario. Think about the potential risks, the likelihood, the impact, and most importantly, what steps you could take to make a smart decision or manage the risk. Take your time, think deeply, and write down your thoughts. I'll collect these at the end of class."

(Distribute Worksheet: My Risk Assessment and allow 10 minutes for completion. Collect at the end.)

Cool Down: Making Smart Choices (5 minutes)

(Display Slide 10: Making Smart Choices)

"Alright, class, we're nearing the end of our lesson on risk evaluation. Today, we've learned that evaluating risks helps you stay safe, achieve your goals, and be prepared for life's many challenges. It truly is a powerful skill."

"As an exit ticket, please complete the Cool Down: One Big Takeaway. On your cool-down slip, write down one big takeaway you have from today's lesson. What's the most important thing you learned or will remember about evaluating risks?"

**(Collect Cool Down: One Big Takeaway as students leave.)"

Worksheet: My Risk Assessment

Name: ____________________________

Date: ____________________________

Instructions:

Think about a situation you might encounter, either in your own life or a hypothetical one, where you need to evaluate a risk. It could be about trying a new activity, making a personal choice, or dealing with a challenge.

Follow the steps below to assess the risk and plan your decision.

Scenario:

Describe the situation or decision you are thinking about. What is happening? What choice do you need to make?

Step 1: Identify the Hazard

What is the potential source of harm or the negative outcome you are trying to avoid in this scenario?

Step 2: Identify Who/What is at Risk

Who or what could be affected by this risk (e.g., yourself, friends, family, reputation, belongings)?

Step 3: Evaluate the Risk

Consider the two main factors:

• Likelihood: How likely is it that the negative outcome will happen? (Circle one)

  • Very Unlikely
  • Unlikely
  • Possible
  • Likely
  • Very Likely

• Impact: If the negative outcome does happen, how severe would the consequences be? (Circle one)

  • Very Low Impact
  • Low Impact
  • Medium Impact
  • High Impact
  • Very High Impact

Explain your reasoning for both likelihood and impact:

Step 4: Control Measures (Reducing the Risk)

What steps can you take to reduce the likelihood or the impact of the negative outcome? Brainstorm at least two specific actions.

2.

Step 5: Review (My Decision)

After evaluating the risk and considering control measures, what is your plan or decision? Why do you think this is the best course of action?

Reading: Understanding Risk

What is Risk?

Every day, from the moment we wake up until we go to sleep, we make decisions that involve risk. Risk simply means the chance that something good or bad will happen as a result of our actions or circumstances. It's not always about danger; sometimes, taking a risk can lead to great rewards, like trying out for a new club or speaking up in class. However, it's also important to understand and evaluate the potential for negative outcomes.

Types of Risks We Face

Risks aren't all the same. They come in many forms:

• Physical Risks: These are risks that can harm our bodies. For example, riding a bicycle without a helmet, swimming in unsupervised areas, or not looking both ways before crossing the street are all physical risks. The potential consequences could range from minor scrapes to serious injuries.

• Emotional Risks: These risks can affect our feelings and mental well-being. Asking someone to a dance, sharing a personal story with a new friend, or trying out for a sports team all involve emotional risks. There's a chance of rejection, embarrassment, or disappointment, but also a chance of happiness, connection, or success.

• Social Risks: These relate to our relationships with others and how we are perceived by our peers. Speaking up against bullying, choosing not to follow a crowd, or even posting something online can carry social risks. There might be fear of judgment or exclusion, but also the reward of standing up for what's right or building genuine friendships.

• Financial Risks: These involve money and possessions. Lending money to a friend, buying an expensive item, or saving up for a big purchase all involve financial risks. You might lose money, or you might gain something valuable.

• Academic Risks: In school, there are risks too! Choosing a challenging class, participating in a debate, or even asking a question in front of the whole class can be academic risks. You might struggle, but you also might learn something new and grow smarter.

Why Do We Evaluate Risk?

Evaluating risk means carefully thinking about the potential outcomes of a situation or decision. We do this to:

1. Make Informed Choices: Instead of just hoping for the best, we can think logically about what might happen.
2. Protect Ourselves and Others: By understanding dangers, we can take steps to prevent harm.
3. Achieve Goals: Sometimes, a calculated risk is necessary to reach a goal, but we want to make sure it's a smart risk.
4. Increase Confidence: Knowing you've thought through a situation can make you feel more prepared and less anxious.

How to Evaluate Risk: A Simple Approach

When faced with a situation that involves risk, you can ask yourself two key questions:

• How LIKELY is it? What is the chance that a particular outcome (good or bad) will happen? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, or very unlikely?

• What is the IMPACT? If that outcome does happen, how significant would the consequences be? Would they be minor, moderate, or severe?

By considering both the likelihood and the impact, you can get a clearer picture of the overall risk. For example, riding a bike without a helmet might have a low likelihood of a serious accident on a quiet street, but the impact if an accident did occur would be very high (head injury). On the other hand, trying out for the school play might have a high likelihood of not getting the lead role (many people audition), but the impact of not getting the role might be relatively low (disappointment, but you still gain experience).

Understanding and evaluating risks is a fundamental life skill that empowers us to make better decisions and navigate the world more safely and confidently.

Discussion Prompts: Weighing the Odds

Introduction to Discussion:

"Great job with the reading! Now, let's open up the floor for some discussion. Remember, there are no right or wrong answers here, just thoughtful perspectives. We want to hear how you're thinking about risk now that we've read a bit more and discussed the different types. Please listen respectfully to your classmates' ideas."

Discussion Questions:

1. From the reading, what was the most surprising or interesting thing you learned about risk, and why did it stand out to you?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

2. Can you think of a time when you or someone you know took a risk that had a positive outcome? What was it, and what made it a "good" risk to take?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

3. The reading talked about "likelihood" and "impact." How do these two ideas help you think differently about decisions you make every day?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

4. Imagine you have a friend considering a risky decision (e.g., trying a dangerous stunt, making a big purchase without research, skipping an important assignment). How would you use what we've learned today to help them evaluate the situation?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

5. Sometimes, avoiding all risks can mean missing out on opportunities. How do we find a balance between being safe and being open to new experiences that might involve some risk?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Activity: Risk Detective

Instructions:

Welcome, Risk Detectives! Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to work with your group to analyze the following scenarios. For each scenario, you will apply the risk assessment steps we discussed. Be prepared to share your findings with the class.

Risk Assessment Steps Reminder:

1. Identify the Hazard: What could cause harm or a negative outcome?
2. Identify Who/What is at Risk: Who or what could be affected?
3. Evaluate the Risk: How likely is it to happen? How severe would the impact be?
4. Control Measures: What can you do to reduce the risk?

Scenario 1: The Weekend Hike

Your group of friends plans an exciting hike up a local mountain trail this Saturday. You haven't checked the weather forecast, and some friends want to wear sandals because they'll look better in photos. You also know that section of the trail is known for loose rocks and a stream crossing.

• Identify the Hazard(s):
  
  
  
  
• Who/What is at Risk?
  
  
  
  
• Evaluate the Risk (Likelihood & Impact):
  
  
  
  
• Control Measures (How to Reduce Risk):
  
  
  
  
  
  

Scenario 2: The Online Challenge

A popular online challenge is circulating where participants film themselves doing something slightly dangerous (e.g., jumping from a high place into water, eating an unusual food combination). Your friends are pressuring you to participate and post a video to gain likes and followers. You know that previous participants have reported minor injuries or feeling sick.

• Identify the Hazard(s):
  
  
  
  
• Who/What is at Risk?
  
  
  
  
• Evaluate the Risk (Likelihood & Impact):
  
  
  
  
• Control Measures (How to Reduce Risk):
  
  
  
  
  
  

Scenario 3: Studying for a Big Test

You have a major exam coming up next week that counts for a large part of your grade. You haven't started studying yet, and your friends invited you to a fun, all-night video game tournament the night before the test. You know if you go, you'll be exhausted and won't have time to study.

• Identify the Hazard(s):
  
  
  
  
• Who/What is at Risk?
  
  
  
  
• Evaluate the Risk (Likelihood & Impact):
  
  
  
  
• Control Measures (How to Reduce Risk):
  
  
  
  
  
  

Game: Risk or Reward?

Instructions:

Listen as your teacher reads out different scenarios. For each scenario, quickly decide if the potential REWARD outweighs the RISK. Be ready to explain your answer!

To Play:

• Your teacher will read a scenario.
• On the count of three, give a thumbs up if you think the reward outweighs the risk, and a thumbs down if you think the risk outweighs the reward.
• Be prepared to quickly justify your decision!

Scenarios:

1. Trying out for the school talent show with a new act you've never performed for an audience before.
   
   
   
   

2. Lending a significant amount of your savings to a friend who promises to pay you back, but has a history of not paying debts.
   
   
   
   

3. Choosing to walk home alone at night through a poorly lit, quiet park instead of taking a well-lit main street.
   
   
   
   

4. Learning a new, challenging skill like coding or playing a musical instrument, knowing it will take a lot of practice and effort.
   
   
   
   

5. Investing all your allowance in a new, unproven video game that a company says will be the "next big thing," but has no reviews yet.
   
   
   
   

Answer Key: Risk Evaluation

For Quiz: Risk Evaluation Check

1. Which of the following best defines 'risk'?

   • Correct Answer: B) The possibility of something unexpected or undesirable happening.
   • Reasoning: Option A is too absolute. Option C is incomplete as risks aren't only physical. Option D is incorrect as risks can have negative outcomes.

2. Which of these is an example of an 'emotional risk'?

   • Correct Answer: C) Sharing a personal story with a new friend.
   • Reasoning: Physical risks involve bodily harm (A). Financial risks involve money (B). Environmental risks involve surroundings (D). Sharing personal information involves vulnerability and potential emotional outcomes.

3. Explain the difference between 'likelihood' and 'impact' when evaluating risk. Give an example for each.

   • Expected Answer: Likelihood refers to how probable it is that an event will occur (e.g., the likelihood of slipping on a wet floor is high). Impact refers to the severity of the consequences if the event does occur (e.g., the impact of slipping on a wet floor might be a minor bruise, or a serious fall depending on circumstances).
   • Reasoning: Students should clearly differentiate between the probability of an event and the severity of its outcome, providing distinct examples that illustrate each concept.

4. Which step comes AFTER 'Identify the Hazard' in a basic risk assessment process?

   • Correct Answer: D) Identify Who/What is at Risk
   • Reasoning: The logical progression of risk assessment involves first identifying the danger, then determining who or what might be affected by it.

5. How confident do you feel in your ability to identify and evaluate risks in your daily life now?

   • Expected Answer: This is a self-assessment question, so there isn't a single 'correct' answer for students. The teacher should look for honest reflection and an indication that the lesson has contributed to their confidence (likely rating 3 or higher).
   • Reasoning: This question assesses student perception of learning and self-efficacy after the lesson.

For Test: Comprehensive Risk Assessment

1. Which statement accurately describes the main purpose of risk evaluation?

   • Correct Answer: B) To understand and minimize potential negative outcomes while making informed decisions.
   • Reasoning: Risk evaluation aims for informed decision-making and mitigation, not complete elimination of risk (A) or reckless behavior (C), nor perfect prediction (D).

2. You are offered a chance to travel to a new country for a cultural exchange program, but it means missing a week of school and using all your savings. What type of risks are primarily involved here?

   • Correct Answer: C) Financial and Academic
   • Reasoning: Missing school impacts academics, and using savings involves financial risk. While there might be minor social or emotional aspects, the primary risks listed are financial and academic.

3. Describe a personal situation where you or someone you know had to evaluate a risk. Explain the risk, the potential consequences, and what steps were taken (or could have been taken) to manage it. (Minimum 3 sentences)

   • Expected Answer: Answers will vary greatly. Look for a clear description of a scenario, identification of a specific risk, plausible consequences (both positive and negative), and relevant strategies for mitigation or management. The response should flow logically and demonstrate an understanding of the risk evaluation process.
   • Reasoning: This open-response question assesses students' ability to apply the learned concepts to real-world or hypothetical scenarios and articulate their thought process.

4. Which of the following would be considered a 'control measure' in risk assessment?

   • Correct Answer: C) Wearing a helmet while cycling.
   • Reasoning: A control measure is an action taken to reduce or eliminate a risk. Identifying hazards (B) is a step, not a control measure. Ignoring or exaggerating risks (A, D) are ineffective or counterproductive approaches.

5. Imagine you are planning a school event that involves a large number of students and some outdoor activities. List three potential risks associated with this event and suggest a control measure for each.

   • Expected Answer: Answers will vary, but examples could include:
     • Risk 1: Inclement weather (e.g., rain, extreme heat).
       Control Measure: Have an indoor backup location, monitor weather forecasts, provide shaded areas and water.
     • Risk 2: Student injury during outdoor activities.
       Control Measure: Ensure proper supervision, provide first-aid stations, have clear rules for activities.
     • Risk 3: Lost students or unauthorized individuals entering the event.
       Control Measure: Implement a sign-in/sign-out system, clearly define event boundaries, have staff monitor entrances/exits.
   • Reasoning: This question assesses practical application of risk identification and mitigation strategies in a planning context.

6. How important do you believe it is for young people to learn about risk evaluation?

   • Expected Answer: This is a perception question, no single 'correct' answer, but likely most students would select 4 or 5 given the lesson content. Look for reasoned responses if asked for justification, demonstrating why they believe it is important (e.g., for safety, decision-making, future success).
   • Reasoning: This question gauges student buy-in and perceived relevance of the lesson content.

Project Guide: Community Risk Map

Project Title: Our Community, Our Risks, Our Solutions

Objective:

To identify and map potential risks within our local community and propose practical solutions to mitigate them. This project will help you apply your risk evaluation skills to real-world scenarios that affect your daily life.

Project Goal:

Working in small groups, you will research, identify, and visually represent common risks in our school or local neighborhood, and then suggest actionable strategies to make these areas safer and more prepared.

Deliverables:

1. Risk Map (Poster or Digital): A visual representation (hand-drawn poster or digital map/slideshow) highlighting at least 5 distinct risks in a chosen area (e.g., school campus, local park, street near school, specific public area).

   • Each risk identified on the map should be clearly labeled.
   • Use symbols, colors, or images to make the map clear and engaging.

2. Risk Analysis & Mitigation Plan (Written Report): A short written report (approx. 300-500 words) or presentation slides that accompanies your map, detailing:

   • For each of the 5 identified risks:
     • Description of Risk: What is the specific risk?
     • Likelihood: How likely is it to occur (e.g., Low, Medium, High)?
     • Impact: How severe would the consequences be if it occurred (e.g., Low, Medium, High)?
     • Proposed Solution(s): What specific, practical steps can be taken to reduce the likelihood or impact of this risk? (e.g., add lighting, create a crossing guard program, educational campaigns, physical barriers).

3. Presentation: Each group will present their Risk Map and Analysis to the class (5-7 minutes per group), explaining their findings and proposed solutions.

Project Steps:

1. Form Groups: Your teacher will assign you to a group (2-4 students per group).
2. Choose Your Area: As a group, decide on a specific area in your community (e.g., school playground, route to school, local community center, a particular intersection) that you will analyze. Teacher approval for chosen area is required.
3. Brainstorm & Research Risks: Discuss potential hazards and risks in your chosen area. Consider physical, social, environmental, and other types of risks. You might need to observe the area, interview peers/teachers, or research local news.
4. Develop Your Risk Map: Create your visual map. Make sure it is clear, organized, and highlights the chosen risks effectively.
5. Write Your Analysis & Solutions: Compile your findings into the written report or presentation slides, addressing all points under Deliverable #2.
6. Prepare Your Presentation: Practice your group presentation to ensure everyone participates and your message is clear and concise.
7. Present to Class: Share your work with your classmates.

Timeline:

• Day 1 (In-class): Group formation, choose area, brainstorm risks.
• Day 2-3 (Homework/Classroom): Research, develop map design.
• Day 4-5 (Classroom): Finalize map, write analysis, prepare presentation.
• Day 6 (In-class): Group Presentations.

Assessment:

Your project will be assessed using the Rubric: Community Risk Map Project, which focuses on the thoroughness of your risk identification, the practicality of your solutions, the clarity of your map, and the effectiveness of your presentation.

Rubric: Community Risk Map Project

Group Members: _________________________________________________________________

Area Chosen: __________________________________________________________________

Teacher Comments:

Warm Up: Risk Scenarios

Instructions:

For each scenario below, quickly jot down or discuss with a partner: What are the risks involved? What might be the potential consequences (good or bad)?

Scenario 1:

You are running late for school and see a shortcut through a muddy field instead of taking the paved sidewalk. You're wearing your new white sneakers.

Risks:



Potential Consequences:

Scenario 2:

Your friend dares you to try a new extreme sport activity that you've never done before, like competitive rock climbing, without any prior training.

Risks:



Potential Consequences:

Scenario 3:

You found a wallet full of money on the ground. No one is around, and there's no identification inside.

Risks:



Potential Consequences:

Cool Down: One Big Takeaway

Instructions:

Before you leave, please take a moment to reflect on today's lesson, "Risk: Calculate Your Chances."

On the lines below, write down one big takeaway you have from today. What is the most important thing you learned or will remember about identifying, evaluating, or managing risks?

This is your exit ticket!

My One Big Takeaway:

Name (Optional): ____________________________

Discussion Prompts: Weighing the Odds

Introduction to Discussion:

"Great job with the reading! Now, let's open up the floor for some discussion. Remember, there are no right or wrong answers here, just thoughtful perspectives. We want to hear how you're thinking about risk now that we've read a bit more and discussed the different types. Please listen respectfully to your classmates' ideas."

Discussion Questions:

1. From the reading, what was the most surprising or interesting thing you learned about risk, and why did it stand out to you?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

2. Can you think of a time when you or someone you know took a risk that had a positive outcome? What was it, and what made it a